Lisbon and Cascais Property Prices: What the Latest Official Figures Reveal

What happened

Portugal's National Statistics Institute (INE) published its latest local housing price statistics on 23 October 2026, providing an updated picture of residential property transactions.

The figures show that Lisbon and Cascais continue to command some of the highest property prices in Portugal.

Nationally, the median price of homes sold during the second quarter of 2026 reached €2,445 per square metre, an increase of 18.4% compared with the same quarter in 2025.

However, the number of completed transactions fell by 9% year-on-year, with 37,854 homes sold during the quarter.

This combination of higher prices and fewer transactions is an important feature of the latest figures. It shows that transaction volumes and prices do not necessarily move in the same direction.

Lisbon and Cascais: How do prices compare?

The municipality-level figures highlight the substantial premium associated with Greater Lisbon's most sought-after markets.

Lisbon recorded the highest municipal median among the major municipalities highlighted by INE, with Cascais close behind.

Oeiras also remains significantly above the national average.

The figures are based on actual property sales, rather than the prices sellers initially advertise.

A note on comparisons: The municipal figures are published using a rolling 12-month reference period ending in June 2026. The national and Greater Lisbon quarterly figures refer to transactions during April to June 2026. They are useful market benchmarks, but the reference periods are not identical.

What do the figures tell us about the wider market?

Across Portugal, median sale prices increased by 18.4% year-on-year in the second quarter.

That was slightly slower than the 19.8% annual increase recorded in the previous quarter.

Lisbon also experienced a moderation in its annual rate of price growth.

A slower rate of increase does not mean prices are falling. It means they are rising less quickly than before.

Meanwhile, the reduction in completed transactions suggests that fewer homes changed hands than during the equivalent period in 2025.

For international buyers, these distinctions matter. Headlines about rising prices do not tell the whole story about negotiating conditions, the availability of suitable homes or differences between individual neighbourhoods.

Are overseas buyers purchasing more expensive properties?

One of the more interesting findings concerns buyers with tax residence outside Portugal.

In Greater Lisbon, INE reported the following median transaction prices:

That's a difference of approximately 47%.

In my experience, many international buyers are looking for particular types of properties. These may include newer developments, recently renovated homes, higher-quality finishes, outdoor space or locations that command a premium.

These preferences naturally place many international buyers in a more expensive segment of the market, and I believe this is likely to explain much of the difference in the figures.

The INE statistics don't break down the specific property characteristics behind that difference, but it's an important distinction: overseas buyers are purchasing more expensive properties on average, not necessarily paying more for equivalent homes.

It's also worth remembering that tax residence is not the same as nationality. The figures include Portuguese buyers living abroad and foreign nationals already resident in Portugal.

What this means for international buyers

The latest figures provide useful context for anyone considering a property purchase in Lisbon, Cascais or the surrounding areas.

Location remains critical. Municipal averages can conceal substantial differences between neighbourhoods, property types and individual developments.

Transaction prices are more useful than asking prices. Advertised prices show what sellers hope to achieve. Completed transactions provide evidence of what buyers have actually paid, although individual comparable sales remain essential.

Higher prices do not guarantee stronger future returns. A market with historically strong demand may still contain overpriced properties or homes that do not represent good value.

Overseas buyers should examine comparable transactions carefully. The difference between tax-residence groups reinforces the importance of understanding the specific market segment in which a property sits.

Whether purchasing a permanent residence, second home or investment property, buyers should assess the individual opportunity rather than relying on a single headline figure.

My view

Lisbon and Cascais continue to attract buyers for good reasons, but these latest figures underline the importance of understanding value at a very local level.

A median price of more than €5,000 per square metre tells us something about the strength of these markets. It does not tell us whether a particular apartment or villa is correctly priced.

Two properties in the same municipality can have very different values depending on their exact location, condition, outlook, outdoor space, building quality and other characteristics.

I also think the difference between transactions involving buyers with Portuguese and overseas tax residence deserves attention, but not the simplistic conclusion that international buyers automatically overpay.

The more useful question is whether buyers are making informed decisions based on relevant comparable properties.

For me, that is where good local advice makes the greatest difference.

The objective should never be simply to buy in a desirable market. It should be to buy the right property at a price that makes sense.

Understanding the figures

These statistics come from INE's Estatísticas de Preços da Habitação ao Nível Local, released on 23 October 2026.

They measure median prices per square metre for residential properties sold, not advertised asking prices.

A median is the middle value of the observed transactions. It should not be interpreted as the price of a typical property in every neighbourhood.

The statistics also use different reference periods for certain geographic comparisons. Municipal data is presented on a rolling 12-month basis, while the national quarterly figures describe sales completed during the second quarter of 2026.